Bitcoin’s rally in 2025 has been anything but ordinary. After a record-setting surge above $122,000 in July, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is now testing the strength of its bull market as a series of technical signals converge. Research firm Matrixport recently identified $109,899 as the critical dividing line between a sustained bull run and the start of a deeper correction. With prices oscillating just above this level, the market is entering a decisive phase.
A Crucial Price Line
Matrixport’s analysis positions $109,899 as more than a psychological milestone. It reflects a zone where institutional demand, technical momentum, and market sentiment intersect. Historically, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the 21-week moving average has defined bull cycles. Staying above this threshold keeps long-term momentum intact, while a sustained break below it could trigger a shift toward risk-off behavior and profit-taking among large holders.
New Risk Bands and Emerging Supports
According to on-chain tracker BlockBeats, Bitcoin has recently fallen below a key “risk band,” a zone that typically signals profit-taking. Failure to regain this range raises the risk of a decline toward the next support cluster between $90,000 and $105,000. These levels represent not only technical support but also areas of heavy accumulation during the early stages of the 2025 rally, where sidelined buyers may step back in.
Whale Selling Adds Pressure
Adding to the uncertainty, data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin whales entities holding more than 1,000 BTC have sold approximately 147,000 BTC over the past month. At current prices, that represents roughly $16.5 billion in net outflows and marks the fastest pace of distribution this cycle. Analysts note that many of these transfers appear to be routed through OTC desks rather than exchanges, suggesting that institutional buyers and ETFs may be absorbing supply in the background.
Despite this selling pressure, corporate accumulators remain active. Japan’s Metaplanet recently added over 5,000 BTC, while Michael Saylor’s Strategy increased its holdings to nearly 640,000 BTC. This structural demand could help cushion price declines, even as whales take profits.
Record-Low Volatility Points to a Looming Breakout
Technical indicators are sending mixed but intriguing signals. Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands, a widely followed measure of volatility, are now tighter than at any point in the asset’s history. Similar compression patterns have previously preceded explosive moves, including July’s rapid climb from $108,000 to $122,000. Analysts are divided on the direction of the next breakout. Some view ETF inflows and seasonal trends like “Uptober” as bullish drivers, while others warn that the market needs to work off overbought conditions before resuming higher.
At the same time, implied volatility has fallen to levels last seen before Bitcoin’s 2023 breakout, when prices tripled in less than a year. On-chain data paints a picture of resilience: exchange reserves remain near multi-year lows, the MVRV ratio is neutral, and funding rates are balanced. These factors suggest that investors are waiting for a catalyst rather than exiting the market outright.
Navigating the Crossroads
The confluence of whale selling, tightening volatility, and critical technical levels leaves Bitcoin at a crossroads. Matrixport’s $109,899 threshold and the $90,000–$105,000 support band now serve as key reference points for traders and long-term investors alike. Holding above these levels would reinforce the narrative of a maturing, institutionally driven bull market. A decisive breakdown, however, could open the door to a deeper correction before the next expansion phase begins.
As Bitcoin continues to trade near these pivotal markers, the market is effectively coiled. Whether the next move delivers a seasonal October surge or a sharp retest of lower support, the coming weeks are likely to define the next chapter of Bitcoin’s 2025 cycle.