In the wake of internal strife at artificial intelligence firm OpenAI, traders on decentralized prediction market Polymarket are showing changing odds on the potential return of Sam Altman to his former position as CEO.
What Happened: As reported by CoinDesk on Monday, the Polymarket contract “Sam back as CEO of OpenAI” saw shares trading at 55 cents, indicating a 55% chance of Altman returning to his former role. This is a significant jump from a mere 10% probability given a day before.
Altman was abruptly removed from his CEO position at OpenAI over the weekend due to alleged discrepancies in candidate communications with the board. His sudden departure has resulted in a tumult within OpenAI, with staff members pushing for the resignation of three directors and expressing concerns about the firm’s future direction, as per Financial Times.
As Monday progressed, the shares of the contract underwent several fluctuations, dropping to 18 cents at one point before rebounding to 50 cents and finally settling between 48 and 53 cents. The odds shifted once again late in the day following a Bloomberg report about ongoing discussions to address the internal disputes at OpenAI.
To date, traders have placed bets amounting to $210,579 on this specific contract, with a noticeable increase in liquidity over the last 24 hours. Another Polymarket contract, though with less liquidity, is speculating on whether Emmet Shear, who was appointed to take over from Altman, will still be OpenAI’s CEO by the end of the week.